From the same article it clarifies “It is worth noting that the magnitude of inflow is not dissimilar to that seen through the Dec 2020 to April 2021 bull market period and is reasonably expected behaviour.” Not that any of this tea leaf reading seems like a science as much as an art.
posted the same question a few months back (during April pump/hype)
Q: Does anyone here think we ***won't*** achieve/reach $100k+ by Year end?
if so why?
S2F says it’s a given. Supply has moved off exchanges at a record rate. The amount of coin held by long term holders is also at an ATH. Imo it’s inevitable it’ll hit 100k. Whether it’s before the end of 2021 i don’t really care. Just my 2 cents
You don't understand how the market works.
It isn't about "inflows".
We don't build a big pile out of all the cash that people have ever spent on crypto.
Someone buys crypto? Well someone sold it to them. The buyer gets the crypto and the seller gets cash that they spend on drugs and lambos and islands.
There's no money "in the system" and no rule that increasing the price by XYZ dollars will cost ABC.
As available supply diminishes, the price can increase exponentially with less and less trading volume.
If available supply increases, then price could drop just as quickly on pinhead orders.
Its an auction, new higher prices bring in new sellers. New lower prices bring in new buyers. you absolutely need inflows to take out the new sellers as price rises. the cost to take out 100 sellers at 50k requires roughly 60% more money than 100 sellers at 30k. You need more inflows as price moves up. The idea you wont have sellers at 60k, 70k, 80k, 90k is silly
>You don't understand how the market works.
>It isn't about "inflows".
Yes I do. Yes it is.
[https://news.bitcoin.com/data-shows-78-bitcoin-supply-illiquid-only-4-2m-btc-constant-circulation/#:\~:text=Onchain%20statistics%20show%2078%25%20of,million%20bitcoin%20in%20constant%20circulation](https://news.bitcoin.com/data-shows-78-bitcoin-supply-illiquid-only-4-2m-btc-constant-circulation/#:~:text=Onchain%20statistics%20show%2078%25%20of,million%20bitcoin%20in%20constant%20circulation).
Quite the opposite.
Everyone makes like they don't know how bitcoin could hit 200k. When coin runs out, it might do it in a week. There is little liquid coin relative to potential demand.
Please post a source, as that makes no objective sense. The majority of coins don’t move, ever.
70% of liquid coins, sure. But there’s something not right there.
Reminder that no one has any idea what this number actually is, it depends on unknowable future factors and anyone giving you a figure is either wild-ass guessing or bullshitting you.
yes nobody can predict the future we get it. You can make rough assumptions though just based on the past and present. it remains true that the money required to buyout 100 sellers at 70k is roughly double that at 35k and at 100k the mount of money required is roughly triple. Thats raw numbers so we know the multiple has to be in the 2x-3x zone conservatively.
< but you don't know how many sellers there will be at 100k > no shit.
Its an auction, there will be sellers all the way up. Price dislocation and imbalances will be rectified. Its not going to be a rocket ship single candle in a day or week to 100k unless you are talking a blow off top which means nobody really gets to sell the top . So yeah I guess you culd have a 20k wick to 100k where its a failed auction and nobody is really buying or selling much of anything. And that could satisfy technically the 100k mark. Any thing more than a cycle climax is going to require substantial flows in the hundreds of billions.
> it remains true that the money required to buyout 100 sellers at 70k is roughly double that at 35k and at 100k the mount of money required is roughly triple
Why? This is under the assumption that those 100 sellers will sell the same amount of coin. What if they are going to sell a certain dollar amount? If someone is paying down their mortgage they would sell for x dollars, not y coins. Or if a miner needs to pay for electricity then they are selling to cover their costs. Many miners hold any extra coins after they cover their electricity.
Yeah, new sellers will pop up as we climb higher but it does NOT *necessarily* mean that we need more cash to push it higher.
Your getting lost in the weeds. I kept it generic deliberately to avoid the hypothetical spiral. I'm not sure why everyone is resistant to the idea their will be sellers just like there has been all the way up from $1.
Yeah, obviously there will be sellers. The thing we're resistant to is the idea that the number of sellers, or amount they sell, will be substantially predictable from earlier eras. These things depend on market conditions, and market conditions vary wildly.
In particular, the idea that required dollar inflows amount to a real long-term limit on price _and_ that that limit is within a few fold of current levels remains unsubstantiated.
No already-existing hedge fund is going to sink their entire AUM into BTC. (And doing leverage plays to simulate it would be a poor decision that I doubt any hedge fund would make.)
I didn't say that, merely using that number as a comparison.
and you'll be surprised at how quickly they reallocate/rebalance/diversify their portfolios.
(as someone who has worked for several Hedges Funds can attest to).
Bitcoin won’t hit 100k this year or even for a while because the alt coin frenzy will sap all bullish momentum from it. People will get burned from the top shitcoins when their overlords pull off the greatest exit scams seen in SEC history. The resulting fall out will rain down unprecedented regulation on shitcoins and put Bitcoin, by collateral, into a multi-winter bear market. Make no mistake, shitcoin days are numbered and they will bring down Bitcoin with them.
I honestly don't know. Retail has so many other options now between dozens of alts, nft's, and defi, not to mention meme stocks, they seem to be losing interest in BTC and chasing bigger/riskier gains elsewhere. Unit bias also doesn't help.
As for the big companies, they probably won't buy on the spot exchange. They'll probably buy OTC to move the price as little as possible. It'll eventually cause a supply shortage/shock, but I'm not sure in what timeframe.
I'm still highly bullish, but I think we're witnessing a transition from retail interest to corporate interest that'll just move at a different pace and in a different way than we're used to seeing.
It also takes a ton more money now to move the price.
I want it to happen, but it's not about what I want.
Every historical precedent says that it should happen, but those precedents cannot continue for ever.
At any point during the last two years, if you had asked me to predict the next six months, I would have done a shity job. I didn't suddenly get smarter.
So yeah, I think BTC hits $100K by EOY, but you shouldn't believe me.
During the bears you lot stay quiet but whenever there's an upward movement we begin to hear series of prophecies and all; it's fine to have made research and project anyway
Of course it stops at $48.7k in bitfinex, when my uppermost buy order is at $48.6k, of fucking course. OK, who's fucking with me? Joke's over, you had your laugh. Now stop it! XD
I just let it be. If we retrace enough to hit it, that's great. If not ever again, that's good news for my stash. It's a little recharge on my margin long, anyways... And I've been caught off guard too many times, to be playing with the placement of my orders on a whim. So I'll just leave it be.
Timing the market is exceptionally hard. Time in the market is the name of the game. It takes longer, but it's less risky to let the opportunities come to you, in a market this volatile.
It kinda goes without saying, but short this at your peril. Maybe it does bleed out some more, maybe it doesn't, but when it bounces, it bounces hard. No reason to that us finally breaking 50k is going to be the point where people stop buying every dip.
Long at your peril. Maybe it goes up some more, maybe it doesn't, but when it drops, it drops hard. No reason to that us finally breaking below 50k is going to be the point where people stop selling every pump.
People selling every pump is a funny way to go up almost 75% in a month.
Also, drops hard? If 10% is what you consider a big drop, I suggest selling all your Bitcoin and putting that money into bonds.
If what we've seen this month is people selling every pump, I think if next month is a full month of people buying every dip, it'll will get us to $100k+. LOL.
Been a great bull market for shitcoiners, BTC is one of the worst performing coins in the top 100 for 2021. and alt season doesnt appear to be ending soon
A lot of people have been waiting on the sidelines to make sure the recent rise wasn't a DCB before re-entering. It seemed like 50k was the magic number to confirm that we're still in the bull market and the recent rise is not a DCB. I thought a lot of people would jump back in once 50k was breached. Seems like that didn't happen, though.
I do. They have monthlies, bi monthlies, and quarterlies. 10/21 and 11/21 are none of those.
I assume security is decent since they are a regulated American exchange, but use 2fa and whitelisted withdrawal addresses for added security.
Some China related news. Do we know how many miners are left in Yunnan?
https://ambcrypto.com/china-high-court-rules-bitcoin-cryptocurrencies-not-protected-by-law/
A few thousand more dollars up and I don't think we can reference this as a dead cat bounce anymore, and I think my chart here gets invalidated.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Ko0xy6M/
If I'm going to full bull though I need to see a higher on the RSI, I'm still worried about this
1day chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/G8gv41U2/
Volume looks bad but I don't know how to look at how many stable coins in comparison to USD are being used to buy bitcoin. So I'm not sure how relevant this is.
I also think altcoins pumping more than bitcoin historically is not a good sign for a continued bull run. There isn't enough data to really prove this idea but since 2017 when alts go crazy that's usually a top signal.
Timeline alone makes this not a dcb. The dcb would have been close to the drop. Dcb doesn’t have months of sideways in between. It’s just not what a dcb is
In most bear cycles, it's pretty obvious that volume is pretty high on the moves up; at least on their initial bounces... its almost laughable how little is available for sale right now. Sure, that can change at any moment, but in the meantime the setup couldn't be more bullish imo.
Honestly you've even left out another few examples of what could be considered deadcat bounces, some of which went 71%+.
The simple fact of the matter is that we need to hit a new ATH or this could still be considered a deadcat/fakeout.
It's a ~24% move from here to give confirmation with a new ATH.
$100k would require a >100% move and provide no further confirmation relative to the risk/reward setup at that price.
So I'll choose the prior as my confirmation signal.
It worries me you thought I was serious.
I think waiting until ATH is silly just like I thought it was silly when a guy was going to wait until 54k or some arbitrary number when it was 30k.
I understood the point you were trying to make, but I gave it a serious response.
The only thing I'm waiting on is entering a leveraged long position. I continue holding and making strategic plays until then. The value proposition for entering a leveraged long here, or at $100k, are both pathetically bad in comparison to entering one right after a new ATH.
It was 20k and people thought the same thing this whole post is nonsensical. It may very well drop but risk reward here is w beaut... long or short idk but make a move.
I really don't know how people survive in this world without a substantial BTC stake.
We are literally living in the twilight zone with society brimming with rage on both sides of every spectrum. Absolute lunacy left, right and center. Logic out the window, having to pretend that insanity is sane... I just cannot fathom relying on an employer and some garbage 9-5 to carry me through the next decade or so. It's ugly now and going to get even worse.
I've said my piece.
This ^ Australia has become every bit as aggressively polarised as the yanks are.
And here me taking further and further steps away from it all and thinking "fuck it. Let them eat themselves to death. I'll just do my thing."
Australia is by far the most dystopian fucked up slice of earth you could possibly find yourself on at this point in time. What's happening there is beyond insane. Like it makes Canada and the US seems normal and Canada and the US are both in pretty fucked up places right now.
I have a friend there now (in AUS) and the things she's telling me are straight out of 1984. I truly believe it's the testing grounds for what's to come for the rest of the world in the years ahead.
Lol at saying Australia is more of a dystopia than America.
The land of monthly mass shootings, staggering levels of incarceration, cults, broken healthcare, broken infrastructure.
Australia just completely cooked it’s vaccine roll out because our leader is a evangelical marketing chameleon who doesn’t give a shit about anything other than maintaining power.
> The land of monthly mass shootings, staggering levels of incarceration, cults, broken healthcare, broken infrastructure.
I don't think you understood why I made that comment. It has nothing to do with the typical culture under normal circumstances, but rather the way they're handling Covid right now. It's a literal police state.
Sure, lol.
American dollar is backed by bombers, bro. It has worked for many decades, already just watch the next 10 years.
"Terrorist attack, Americans jump into Bosnia again "
Wait for it, it will happen
Sound cliché BUT...
The best thing to ever happen to me was to work for a shitty firm that didn't appreciate me with a particularly toxic culture. Literally the hatred of working for other people that it spurred inside me changed my life forever. I thank God for that experience to this day.
I worked with a small team, <20 people and we had an amazing WISP where everyone cared about the network and each individual customer. CEO would give us random $100 and tell us to have fun that weekend or our spouse would get a birthday card in the mail with $100, shit like that.
Than we got bought out by Midco (Comcast), within a year most of us were fired if we refused to suck the corporate cock and become cable monkeys. It's been two years now, but every single customer/neighbor that can get service from MY network is now MY customer. It's been surreal and I'll never work a 9-5 again. I'll never forget that ride home from my "boss" after he fired me, I knew every house we drove by would jump ship as soon as I could get something up and running.
I fake working a 9 to 5 and have for years. I do about one or two hours worth of work. Somehow it keeps 'Working'. I just figure I will appreciate each day I get by with it and remember it works till it doesn't.
How can my employer automate drinking beer and watching YouTube halfway through the workday? Well ok maybe the YouTube bit could be automated now I think about it…
Amen. The peace of mind you get from holding a BTC position is priceless. It seems like every major human institution on the planet is running on fumes and due for collapse any year now.
GBTC closes at $39.86, a discount of 13.74%.
OBTC closes at $15.10, a discount of 9.84%.
MSTR closes at $718.51. Each share has $530.89 of BTC.
OBTC is getting hammered, and not in a good way.
You can view this on deribit easily without even having an account...
13796 BTC of total open interest on puts with $50k strike or lower. So that's only about $6B.
But honestly this shit is all leveraged, some are out of money, some are in the money, and there are a ton of open calls too. Most importantly, all of those puts have a buyer and a seller. Lots of open puts doesn't necessarily indicate a heavy bear position. If you are looking for some "whales holding price down to close puts in profit" narrative, the data will never be clean enough for that IMO.
tbh pumping through 50k and breaking out is far too obvious. We will remain droopy until top longer close and FOMO buyers sell and then we will blast through, leaving them behind
As has happened through this whole run from 30k, the market will be surprised because the large majority expects what you say as soon as it goes -1%... they all keep getting wrecked too. It's why most lose in the leverage game... you could be long from 30k, hold until now and think your a genius and close and short all your gains and lose all just like that. I'm not convinced we've seen the death candle yet for these people thinking a correction has to happen...
It’s not a fantasy as that would be something I would want to be true, just look a both sides of the coin
Who remembers with all the Tesla and microstragey, institutions are buying etc the miners dump 1000s of coins to cause 30% pull backs
Everyone has a price to sell at as why would it go from 65-29k
Annoys me as you say anything that’s not bullish get downvoted as it doesn’t fit your view lol
Friendly reminder: Throughout over 98% of its price history, Bitcoin at any given time has had a price of at least 10x its price 4 years ago.
With that in mind, Bitcoin hit a price of $5k for the first time ever on October 12, 2017. Since we reached $50k today and we’re barely in August, we are comfortably above the 10x minimum threshold to maintain this overwhelmingly consistent trend.
Other first time price-point milestones to consider:
$6.46k on November 1, 2017
$10k on November 29, 2017
Happy HODLing.
I plot that very thing, as well as 16x the 13-W SMA from 4 years earlier:
[https://imgur.com/a/m7WY42S](https://imgur.com/a/m7WY42S)
The 13-W SMA was $5663.68 on 29 Nov 2017. 16x that is $90.6K. The ratio has gone as low as 12x, which would be $68K.
I have 2187 daily closes that have a closing price from 4 years earlier. 40 of them are less than 10x. To get to 99% above, you'll need 4000 total comparison with no more days below 10x. In other words, 9 Aug 2026.
> $6.46k on November 1, 2017
>
> $10k on November 29, 2017
Holy crap those few weeks are a time of my life I will never forget... man that had me more giddy than the run from beginning of this year even...
Same. Not sure if it's a different situation, or if it's just the fact it's not my first rodeo! I should have stacked harder between then and now, but I'm still in a much better position than I would have been if it had just continue to go up. People don't generally recognize that dips can be a good thing if you take advantage of them.
ETHUSD hit 3380, a primo short opportunity waiting over a month for. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vgMcpxP7/
BTC hit 50k and funding is not negative anymore at all to the point that even predicted funding is flashing positive now. Now that the shorters have given up and we are at this well rounded 50k number right up into resistance areas, I don't think we go up with the same fervor as before. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yZvwli9J/
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, August 24, 2021 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/pafu69/daily_discussion_tuesday_august_24_2021/)
I'm getting alerts from Glassnode that I have set about exchange balance increasing. Hold on to your butts.
Well clearly someone has to make a wrong sell before the pamp
Waitaminute. That usually means exchange balance increases so that sellers can sell right? Which means number go down. How can this be? ;)
From the same article it clarifies “It is worth noting that the magnitude of inflow is not dissimilar to that seen through the Dec 2020 to April 2021 bull market period and is reasonably expected behaviour.” Not that any of this tea leaf reading seems like a science as much as an art.
posted the same question a few months back (during April pump/hype) Q: Does anyone here think we ***won't*** achieve/reach $100k+ by Year end? if so why?
S2F says it’s a given. Supply has moved off exchanges at a record rate. The amount of coin held by long term holders is also at an ATH. Imo it’s inevitable it’ll hit 100k. Whether it’s before the end of 2021 i don’t really care. Just my 2 cents
It's a steep hill to climb Because we need roughly 200-400 billion of inflows. That's like 100 Teslas or micro strategies
You don't understand how the market works. It isn't about "inflows". We don't build a big pile out of all the cash that people have ever spent on crypto. Someone buys crypto? Well someone sold it to them. The buyer gets the crypto and the seller gets cash that they spend on drugs and lambos and islands. There's no money "in the system" and no rule that increasing the price by XYZ dollars will cost ABC. As available supply diminishes, the price can increase exponentially with less and less trading volume. If available supply increases, then price could drop just as quickly on pinhead orders.
Its an auction, new higher prices bring in new sellers. New lower prices bring in new buyers. you absolutely need inflows to take out the new sellers as price rises. the cost to take out 100 sellers at 50k requires roughly 60% more money than 100 sellers at 30k. You need more inflows as price moves up. The idea you wont have sellers at 60k, 70k, 80k, 90k is silly >You don't understand how the market works. >It isn't about "inflows". Yes I do. Yes it is.
70-80% or Hodlers don’t sell at any price. That number is increasing as is demand. QED.
Where did you get that figure haven't 80% of coins changed hands in last 6 months?
[https://news.bitcoin.com/data-shows-78-bitcoin-supply-illiquid-only-4-2m-btc-constant-circulation/#:\~:text=Onchain%20statistics%20show%2078%25%20of,million%20bitcoin%20in%20constant%20circulation](https://news.bitcoin.com/data-shows-78-bitcoin-supply-illiquid-only-4-2m-btc-constant-circulation/#:~:text=Onchain%20statistics%20show%2078%25%20of,million%20bitcoin%20in%20constant%20circulation). Quite the opposite. Everyone makes like they don't know how bitcoin could hit 200k. When coin runs out, it might do it in a week. There is little liquid coin relative to potential demand.
That information is wrong. I just read again that 70% of Bitcoins have exchanged hands this year.
Please post a source, as that makes no objective sense. The majority of coins don’t move, ever. 70% of liquid coins, sure. But there’s something not right there.
do you know a good way to search my post history I definitely replayed to posts with links to this
Reminder that no one has any idea what this number actually is, it depends on unknowable future factors and anyone giving you a figure is either wild-ass guessing or bullshitting you.
yes nobody can predict the future we get it. You can make rough assumptions though just based on the past and present. it remains true that the money required to buyout 100 sellers at 70k is roughly double that at 35k and at 100k the mount of money required is roughly triple. Thats raw numbers so we know the multiple has to be in the 2x-3x zone conservatively. < but you don't know how many sellers there will be at 100k > no shit. Its an auction, there will be sellers all the way up. Price dislocation and imbalances will be rectified. Its not going to be a rocket ship single candle in a day or week to 100k unless you are talking a blow off top which means nobody really gets to sell the top . So yeah I guess you culd have a 20k wick to 100k where its a failed auction and nobody is really buying or selling much of anything. And that could satisfy technically the 100k mark. Any thing more than a cycle climax is going to require substantial flows in the hundreds of billions.
> it remains true that the money required to buyout 100 sellers at 70k is roughly double that at 35k and at 100k the mount of money required is roughly triple Why? This is under the assumption that those 100 sellers will sell the same amount of coin. What if they are going to sell a certain dollar amount? If someone is paying down their mortgage they would sell for x dollars, not y coins. Or if a miner needs to pay for electricity then they are selling to cover their costs. Many miners hold any extra coins after they cover their electricity. Yeah, new sellers will pop up as we climb higher but it does NOT *necessarily* mean that we need more cash to push it higher.
Your getting lost in the weeds. I kept it generic deliberately to avoid the hypothetical spiral. I'm not sure why everyone is resistant to the idea their will be sellers just like there has been all the way up from $1.
Yeah, obviously there will be sellers. The thing we're resistant to is the idea that the number of sellers, or amount they sell, will be substantially predictable from earlier eras. These things depend on market conditions, and market conditions vary wildly. In particular, the idea that required dollar inflows amount to a real long-term limit on price _and_ that that limit is within a few fold of current levels remains unsubstantiated.
...or 20-40 small-medium sized hedge funds (~10bn AUM) of which there are hundreds
I don't think small-med hedge funds are jumping in crypto with a billion dollars position to start.
No already-existing hedge fund is going to sink their entire AUM into BTC. (And doing leverage plays to simulate it would be a poor decision that I doubt any hedge fund would make.)
I didn't say that, merely using that number as a comparison. and you'll be surprised at how quickly they reallocate/rebalance/diversify their portfolios. (as someone who has worked for several Hedges Funds can attest to).
Bitcoin won’t hit 100k this year or even for a while because the alt coin frenzy will sap all bullish momentum from it. People will get burned from the top shitcoins when their overlords pull off the greatest exit scams seen in SEC history. The resulting fall out will rain down unprecedented regulation on shitcoins and put Bitcoin, by collateral, into a multi-winter bear market. Make no mistake, shitcoin days are numbered and they will bring down Bitcoin with them.
personally, I am of the opinion the more shitcoin rug-pulls/scams that money has to flow somewhere and that somewhere is back to bitcoin...
Usdc at 10%. Park it there until the bottom.
I'd believe this if there wasn't a stablecoin infrastructure to provide liquidity exits.
Exit scam into Bitcoin... noob market learns the hard way Bitcoin is king... Bullish
I'd be inclined to believe this, except it hasn't happened the last few times they exit scammed.
who exactly exit scammed? what are you actually talking about?
It's 2021 and if you have to ask who exit scammed in the past, you're ngmi.
plenty of the top alts, if not the vast majority tbh, literally have not exit scammed…
Lol
I honestly don't know. Retail has so many other options now between dozens of alts, nft's, and defi, not to mention meme stocks, they seem to be losing interest in BTC and chasing bigger/riskier gains elsewhere. Unit bias also doesn't help. As for the big companies, they probably won't buy on the spot exchange. They'll probably buy OTC to move the price as little as possible. It'll eventually cause a supply shortage/shock, but I'm not sure in what timeframe. I'm still highly bullish, but I think we're witnessing a transition from retail interest to corporate interest that'll just move at a different pace and in a different way than we're used to seeing. It also takes a ton more money now to move the price.
Reasonable take.
I want it to happen, but it's not about what I want. Every historical precedent says that it should happen, but those precedents cannot continue for ever. At any point during the last two years, if you had asked me to predict the next six months, I would have done a shity job. I didn't suddenly get smarter. So yeah, I think BTC hits $100K by EOY, but you shouldn't believe me.
During the bears you lot stay quiet but whenever there's an upward movement we begin to hear series of prophecies and all; it's fine to have made research and project anyway
Of course it stops at $48.7k in bitfinex, when my uppermost buy order is at $48.6k, of fucking course. OK, who's fucking with me? Joke's over, you had your laugh. Now stop it! XD
I had set that too and slept. It never touched it. Were you able to enter at any other point?
I just let it be. If we retrace enough to hit it, that's great. If not ever again, that's good news for my stash. It's a little recharge on my margin long, anyways... And I've been caught off guard too many times, to be playing with the placement of my orders on a whim. So I'll just leave it be. Timing the market is exceptionally hard. Time in the market is the name of the game. It takes longer, but it's less risky to let the opportunities come to you, in a market this volatile.
Well said Spidy. Patience is key. I’ll wait for a better opening.
It kinda goes without saying, but short this at your peril. Maybe it does bleed out some more, maybe it doesn't, but when it bounces, it bounces hard. No reason to that us finally breaking 50k is going to be the point where people stop buying every dip.
Long at your peril. Maybe it goes up some more, maybe it doesn't, but when it drops, it drops hard. No reason to that us finally breaking below 50k is going to be the point where people stop selling every pump.
People selling every pump is a funny way to go up almost 75% in a month. Also, drops hard? If 10% is what you consider a big drop, I suggest selling all your Bitcoin and putting that money into bonds.
what if i told you on every sell order, there was a buy order
What if I told you that market orders and limit orders aren't the same thing
If what we've seen this month is people selling every pump, I think if next month is a full month of people buying every dip, it'll will get us to $100k+. LOL.
Sleepy, sleepy... you are feeling sleepy, please go to sleepy NA already 9 pm thanks
Despite the rally this month, this bull market has still been pathetic.
Been a great bull market for shitcoiners, BTC is one of the worst performing coins in the top 100 for 2021. and alt season doesnt appear to be ending soon
At this point in the 2017 bull market Bitcoin was still at $4.5k. What do you even mean?
He's trying to say he didn't buy at 4k last year
Yeah I didn't, but I bought at $4k in 2018.
I did both 0_0
5-10x depending where you wanna say we started, and the bull run might not be over.
Not gunna lie, I thought breaking 50k again would be a fomo launchpad. The low volume is weird.
Why? It's coming up on resistance. Needs to cool off and consolidate. With the drop to 29k there clearly is no fomo. It's going to be a grind.
A lot of people have been waiting on the sidelines to make sure the recent rise wasn't a DCB before re-entering. It seemed like 50k was the magic number to confirm that we're still in the bull market and the recent rise is not a DCB. I thought a lot of people would jump back in once 50k was breached. Seems like that didn't happen, though.
it needs to go near or past ATH's for true FOMO to kick in also alts are enticing to people b/c of unit bias
This is true, I think a lot of energy is being sucked up by alts right now
This time is different. Retail is in nft, defi, and alts.
It does seem like the multitude of other options has really shaken things up this time
anonymous altcoin on the move again.
Does anyone here use ledger x? I'm thinking about selling ccs there, but I'm concerned about security. Also, why no 10/21 and 11/21 options?
I do. They have monthlies, bi monthlies, and quarterlies. 10/21 and 11/21 are none of those. I assume security is decent since they are a regulated American exchange, but use 2fa and whitelisted withdrawal addresses for added security.
If they have monthlies, why no october or November options?
Monthlies doesnt mean every month. Monthly means the end of the next month. Bi-monthly is the end of two months from then.
I would but a wooly mammoth ate my hardware wallet.
Every time somebody posts about being "concerned about the low volume" I immediately hit the buy button. It works 98% of the time
Lowvolumelowvolumelowvolumelowvolume Market buys, right?
You don't seem concerned about the low volume though. Might mean it's time to sell.
I'm kind of ambivalent about it tbh
I don't care about the low volume, I'm concerned about the low price. Why isn't it 65k already? 🙂
I'm concerned about how you don't see that 65k is the low price.
Thanks for posting something
You too
Some China related news. Do we know how many miners are left in Yunnan? https://ambcrypto.com/china-high-court-rules-bitcoin-cryptocurrencies-not-protected-by-law/
China played their hand. Nobody cares.
You examine China. Nothing interesting happens.
China used Ban Bitcoin. But nothing happened!
They used it six times already, so they can't lower the Price stat any further
They caused about 15 panic dumps over the years banning it over and over. They even reiterated the ban and dumped it again.
Of course we do. What type of question is that? Even the noobs know. Oh, I get it. It was rhetorical. / Whoosh!
A few thousand more dollars up and I don't think we can reference this as a dead cat bounce anymore, and I think my chart here gets invalidated. https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Ko0xy6M/ If I'm going to full bull though I need to see a higher on the RSI, I'm still worried about this 1day chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/G8gv41U2/ Volume looks bad but I don't know how to look at how many stable coins in comparison to USD are being used to buy bitcoin. So I'm not sure how relevant this is. I also think altcoins pumping more than bitcoin historically is not a good sign for a continued bull run. There isn't enough data to really prove this idea but since 2017 when alts go crazy that's usually a top signal.
Timeline alone makes this not a dcb. The dcb would have been close to the drop. Dcb doesn’t have months of sideways in between. It’s just not what a dcb is
In most bear cycles, it's pretty obvious that volume is pretty high on the moves up; at least on their initial bounces... its almost laughable how little is available for sale right now. Sure, that can change at any moment, but in the meantime the setup couldn't be more bullish imo.
Honestly you've even left out another few examples of what could be considered deadcat bounces, some of which went 71%+. The simple fact of the matter is that we need to hit a new ATH or this could still be considered a deadcat/fakeout.
Hell just wait for 100k to be sure
And miss 2x gains? Gambol
It's a ~24% move from here to give confirmation with a new ATH. $100k would require a >100% move and provide no further confirmation relative to the risk/reward setup at that price. So I'll choose the prior as my confirmation signal.
It worries me you thought I was serious. I think waiting until ATH is silly just like I thought it was silly when a guy was going to wait until 54k or some arbitrary number when it was 30k.
I understood the point you were trying to make, but I gave it a serious response. The only thing I'm waiting on is entering a leveraged long position. I continue holding and making strategic plays until then. The value proposition for entering a leveraged long here, or at $100k, are both pathetically bad in comparison to entering one right after a new ATH.
It was 20k and people thought the same thing this whole post is nonsensical. It may very well drop but risk reward here is w beaut... long or short idk but make a move.
I was just graphing that every time we have crossed above the 50wMA and came back down to it it gave a support relief rally.
I really don't know how people survive in this world without a substantial BTC stake. We are literally living in the twilight zone with society brimming with rage on both sides of every spectrum. Absolute lunacy left, right and center. Logic out the window, having to pretend that insanity is sane... I just cannot fathom relying on an employer and some garbage 9-5 to carry me through the next decade or so. It's ugly now and going to get even worse. I've said my piece.
“But why are they even worth anything?”
"but it's not backed by anything reeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
But the CEO of Bitcoin might just decide to mint more than 21m of them. It's just computer code, and computer code can easily be changed....
"why can't I just make more it's digital i can make a trillion LOLOLOLOL"
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And in Canada. And in Australia. And in the EU.
This ^ Australia has become every bit as aggressively polarised as the yanks are. And here me taking further and further steps away from it all and thinking "fuck it. Let them eat themselves to death. I'll just do my thing."
Australia is by far the most dystopian fucked up slice of earth you could possibly find yourself on at this point in time. What's happening there is beyond insane. Like it makes Canada and the US seems normal and Canada and the US are both in pretty fucked up places right now. I have a friend there now (in AUS) and the things she's telling me are straight out of 1984. I truly believe it's the testing grounds for what's to come for the rest of the world in the years ahead.
Not challenging you, but just curious: what are some examples of some of the things you're hearing that make you say that about Australia?
They’re basically living in a police state and have been for some time. All to keep them “safe” from Covid.
Lol at saying Australia is more of a dystopia than America. The land of monthly mass shootings, staggering levels of incarceration, cults, broken healthcare, broken infrastructure. Australia just completely cooked it’s vaccine roll out because our leader is a evangelical marketing chameleon who doesn’t give a shit about anything other than maintaining power.
> The land of monthly mass shootings, staggering levels of incarceration, cults, broken healthcare, broken infrastructure. I don't think you understood why I made that comment. It has nothing to do with the typical culture under normal circumstances, but rather the way they're handling Covid right now. It's a literal police state.
I hear you 100 but Canada is lowkey there and America is on the cusp
Is there another place that matters? The correct answer is no
The USA (and Canada) are watching the sun set on their empires. Whether they know it or not.
If this is the case, then China is the only country poised to take the throne. So uh.... let's hope you are wrong.
I’m not wrong. And you got it right.
Bitcoin won't save you from a china ruled world.
Sure, lol. American dollar is backed by bombers, bro. It has worked for many decades, already just watch the next 10 years. "Terrorist attack, Americans jump into Bosnia again " Wait for it, it will happen
Lol we couldn't even beat 75,000 taliban bruh
I feel like if i wasn't running my own business right now, i probably would have been fired at least 8 times this week alone!
Sound cliché BUT... The best thing to ever happen to me was to work for a shitty firm that didn't appreciate me with a particularly toxic culture. Literally the hatred of working for other people that it spurred inside me changed my life forever. I thank God for that experience to this day.
I worked with a small team, <20 people and we had an amazing WISP where everyone cared about the network and each individual customer. CEO would give us random $100 and tell us to have fun that weekend or our spouse would get a birthday card in the mail with $100, shit like that. Than we got bought out by Midco (Comcast), within a year most of us were fired if we refused to suck the corporate cock and become cable monkeys. It's been two years now, but every single customer/neighbor that can get service from MY network is now MY customer. It's been surreal and I'll never work a 9-5 again. I'll never forget that ride home from my "boss" after he fired me, I knew every house we drove by would jump ship as soon as I could get something up and running.
> I'll never work a 9-5 again. This is the mood. This is the answer. <3 And congratulations on your success.
I fake working a 9 to 5 and have for years. I do about one or two hours worth of work. Somehow it keeps 'Working'. I just figure I will appreciate each day I get by with it and remember it works till it doesn't.
Yeah, that was the army for me. Realised i have problems with authority really quick.. And having to do it for a minimum 4 years really enforced it!
By 2025 so many white collar jobs will be automated. It's going to get wild.
How can my employer automate drinking beer and watching YouTube halfway through the workday? Well ok maybe the YouTube bit could be automated now I think about it…
Robot, hold my beer!
He'll drink the beer for you. Especially if I'm your employer. I'll drink all your drinks for you. Checkmate, wagecuck.
They'll never automate my degenerate trading lifestyle. Quants will try but fail and crash at the absolute degeneracy of it.
So you're a monte carlo Sim gone rogue
I love it.
Amen. The peace of mind you get from holding a BTC position is priceless. It seems like every major human institution on the planet is running on fumes and due for collapse any year now.
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GBTC closes at $39.86, a discount of 13.74%. OBTC closes at $15.10, a discount of 9.84%. MSTR closes at $718.51. Each share has $530.89 of BTC. OBTC is getting hammered, and not in a good way.
fuck me
I hear this is Sofia Vergara's voice. She's wearing chaps.
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Can anyone confirm 1.8 Billion deribit puts with <50k price expiring friday ?
You can view this on deribit easily without even having an account... 13796 BTC of total open interest on puts with $50k strike or lower. So that's only about $6B. But honestly this shit is all leveraged, some are out of money, some are in the money, and there are a ton of open calls too. Most importantly, all of those puts have a buyer and a seller. Lots of open puts doesn't necessarily indicate a heavy bear position. If you are looking for some "whales holding price down to close puts in profit" narrative, the data will never be clean enough for that IMO.
Bitcoin is still in a bull run!
Witching hour is back. dumping into the close.
tbh pumping through 50k and breaking out is far too obvious. We will remain droopy until top longer close and FOMO buyers sell and then we will blast through, leaving them behind
As has happened through this whole run from 30k, the market will be surprised because the large majority expects what you say as soon as it goes -1%... they all keep getting wrecked too. It's why most lose in the leverage game... you could be long from 30k, hold until now and think your a genius and close and short all your gains and lose all just like that. I'm not convinced we've seen the death candle yet for these people thinking a correction has to happen...
We wil remain droopy untill NA goes to sleep, i just hope asia doesn't dump it on them, as they should.
looks like worst breakout ever at first glance but it could turn around fast
20k soon lol
Feeling bearish. Shitcoins BNB and ADA pumping. Zoomed out, this rally could still be a dead cat bounce. Too much greed, not enough fear.
BTC can’t thrive until the scumbag CZ is out of the picture.
you know what they say, always make trades based on feelings.
Could you imagine the ultimate head fuck to crash back to 20/30’s then back up in December
one problem with this fantasy is you don't have chinese miner capitulation as a tailwind to go down.
It’s not a fantasy as that would be something I would want to be true, just look a both sides of the coin Who remembers with all the Tesla and microstragey, institutions are buying etc the miners dump 1000s of coins to cause 30% pull backs Everyone has a price to sell at as why would it go from 65-29k Annoys me as you say anything that’s not bullish get downvoted as it doesn’t fit your view lol
Friendly reminder: Throughout over 98% of its price history, Bitcoin at any given time has had a price of at least 10x its price 4 years ago. With that in mind, Bitcoin hit a price of $5k for the first time ever on October 12, 2017. Since we reached $50k today and we’re barely in August, we are comfortably above the 10x minimum threshold to maintain this overwhelmingly consistent trend. Other first time price-point milestones to consider: $6.46k on November 1, 2017 $10k on November 29, 2017 Happy HODLing.
I plot that very thing, as well as 16x the 13-W SMA from 4 years earlier: [https://imgur.com/a/m7WY42S](https://imgur.com/a/m7WY42S) The 13-W SMA was $5663.68 on 29 Nov 2017. 16x that is $90.6K. The ratio has gone as low as 12x, which would be $68K.
Do you happen to know how many more days in a row we’d need to be 10x or higher in order to reach 99% on this trend rather than 98%?
I have 2187 daily closes that have a closing price from 4 years earlier. 40 of them are less than 10x. To get to 99% above, you'll need 4000 total comparison with no more days below 10x. In other words, 9 Aug 2026.
4 years seems like an arbitrary time frame to use
Lol how is it arbitrary when every 4 years the inflation rate is cut in half 😂
Halving periods, there might be something to it.
Yup. [The teardrops are halvings.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/IyTAkI6e)
Interesting, so this would suggest $100k by end of November. I'll cross my fingers!
> $6.46k on November 1, 2017 > > $10k on November 29, 2017 Holy crap those few weeks are a time of my life I will never forget... man that had me more giddy than the run from beginning of this year even...
Becoming ded inside
Same. Not sure if it's a different situation, or if it's just the fact it's not my first rodeo! I should have stacked harder between then and now, but I'm still in a much better position than I would have been if it had just continue to go up. People don't generally recognize that dips can be a good thing if you take advantage of them.
ETHUSD hit 3380, a primo short opportunity waiting over a month for. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vgMcpxP7/ BTC hit 50k and funding is not negative anymore at all to the point that even predicted funding is flashing positive now. Now that the shorters have given up and we are at this well rounded 50k number right up into resistance areas, I don't think we go up with the same fervor as before. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yZvwli9J/
Do you think 47.1k is a good area to wait for a long?
Give it some time for the degens to ape into shorts because it didn’t blow through the 50ks in 6 hours. Funding will swing
Yea it's already swinging, crazy awesome
Good to see some different sentiment. People are way too bullish with the short term 100k predictions
Don't worry if we pull back a few thousand we'll get the short term $20k predictions again
> I don't think we go up with the same fervor as before. Reasonable. >ETHUSD hit 3380, a primo short opportunity NGMI
>NGMI Have you seen the chart? I already made it, lol. Can't lose. https://www.tradingview.com/x/SsenjaGC/